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After netting nine goals in his first seven Premier League games, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has started the season on fire.

While it is not his most impressive beginning to a season - he found the net 11 times in his opening seven appearances in 2022-23 and ten in the previous campaign - it still puts him three strikes clear in the early running for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that none of his nine goals have been penalties renders it particularly impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two reasons why Haaland is so heavily favored for the award so soon in the campaign.

First, the quantity of strikes he has already scored - and, of similar importance, the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's receiving.

And second, the slow start his typical competitors for the honor have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A player's expected goals number (xG) signifies how many goals a English league attacker has historically scored from the quantity and caliber of chances he has had.

This doesn't represent a statistic haphazardly selected by data analysts, but by Premier League history.

Upon reviewing at attackers' xG statistics in the Premier League so far this season from open play, the Norway forward is obtaining considerably more excellent scoring situations to find the net than any other player.

Actually, even if Haaland were no better at scoring from situations than anyone else in the league, he would nonetheless have netted over double the amount goals as everyone else.

Chance Creation Breakdown

That is demonstrated by breaking down the number and quality of opportunities that footballers have received in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this term, twelve additional compared to every other footballer.

Interestingly, this is not especially surprising for him - he had actually taken more non-spot-kick efforts at this point in the previous two campaigns (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in the previous term).

What is, however exceptional even for Haaland is the caliber of opportunities he has had this term. His efforts have had an expected goals rating of an average of 0.27.

This statistic indicates is that footballers have traditionally scored the efforts he's registered at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Of players to take at least 10 shots, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to convert per attempt - because of a couple of tap-ins against West Ham and Brighton.

Haaland's xG of an average of 0.27 is much higher than the 0.17 expected goals per effort he had at the opening of last term.

In short, the scoring situations he has had in 2025-26 have been significantly more straightforward to convert from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the beginning of last season.

Historical Comparison

Beginning a campaign so impressively is, as noted earlier, not unusual for Haaland. Following seven matches last season he had scored 10 goals - four more than anyone else and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Liverpool forward who won the Golden Boot with twenty-nine strikes, seven additional compared to the Etihad attacker.

This season, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has scored half the number goals and had half the chances (xG) than at this juncture last term.

Indeed this has been the least productive beginning to a English top-flight campaign the Egypt forward has made.

Challengers' Quiet Beginning

It is not just Salah who has begun modestly either. If we look at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last season, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the additional ten attackers put together so far.

Whether due to physical problems - multiple prominent forwards - protracted transfer stories in Alexander Isak's case or merely because their teams have struggled (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's likely rivals in the battle for the scoring title have not fired so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

While Haaland looks the clear favourite for the Premier League scoring title, what about the European Golden Shoe that is presented to the attacker netting the highest number in Europe's premier competitions?

That competition is far more competitive at this early stage because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have also started in excellent condition, with 11 and 9 conversions respectively.

The reality Haaland has scored so many times and has the highest xG of the trio despite not attempting any penalties renders him the likely winner.

Yet given that Kane and Mbappe are two of the best finishers in continental soccer in terms of overperforming their xG, the battle continues intensely.